Tropical Storm KATE Advisory Mo, 30.08.

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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The depression is looking poorly organized this evening, with the
low-level center exposed for the past several hours, and only a
small area of convection located over 50 n mi east of the center.
Strong west-northwesterly shear on the order of 20 to 30 kt due to a
nearby subtropical jet stream has been impacting the cyclone since
earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 29 kt, so
the initial advisory intensity is being kept at 30 kt. The shear is
forecast to increase even more later tonight and persist through
Monday night. If the depression survives through that time period,
then it may have an opportunity to strengthen in a few days when the
cyclone moves north of the jet stream. The official NHC intensity
forecast was little changed from the previous one, and is close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

The lack of deep convection has likely been the cause of a wobble to
the northwest over the past several hours, as the shallow depression
has been steered primarily the low-level trade wind flow. The
overall motion over the past 12 h is 350/7 kt. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should induce a
generally northward motion over the next few days. By the middle of
this week, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to fill in, and
force the cyclone on more of a northwestward path. The guidance
continues to shift to the west with their solutions, as they come
into better agreement on the strength of the ridge, and the NHC
foreast has followed suit with a shift to the west. However, the
latest NHC track forecast remains to the east of all of the
consensus track guidance. Therefore, further future adjustments to
the track may be necessary.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 20.1N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 21.1N  50.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 22.4N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 23.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 24.5N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 25.6N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 27.0N  51.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 30.0N  53.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 34.0N  53.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto